South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-21)


About The Event

Background/ Context:
South Asian climate is influenced by both tropical (Oct-Dec) and temperate mid-latitude (Dec-Feb) circulation systems during the winter months. Southern parts of South Asia, including peninsular India, Sri Lanka, Maldives and southern coastal areas of Myanmar are influenced by North East Monsoon (Re-establishment of prevalent north easterly trade-wind regime over South Asia associated with the southward movement of the ITCZ), while extra-tropical activity dominated by “Western disturbances” influence the northern parts of the region including Afghanistan, Pakistan, north India, Bhutan, Nepal, Bangladesh and Myanmar. It is therefore necessary that seasonal forecasts for winter season be issued at two different times – one during September/October for southern region and the other during November/December for northern region. The crucial role of winter rains and the growing recognition of the benefits of SASCOFs in articulating and sharing seasonal climate information have led to the need for regularly conducting winter SASCOFs. Winter sessions of SASCOF’s were started in 2015 keeping in view the importance of winter seasonal climate to key user sectors. The first winter SASCOF session was held in October 2015, at Chennai, Tamil Nadu India, followed by Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar in 2016, Male, Maldives in 2017, Colombo, Sri Lanka in 2018 and Thiruvananthapuram, India in 2019.Last two years (2020 and 2021), SASCOF Winter Sessions were held online due to CoViD-19 pandemic.

The objective of the forum is to prepare consensus seasonal climate information on regional scale that provides a consistent basis for preparing national level outlooks. Such platforms also serve to interact with user sector to understand and enhance the use of climate information

The SASCOF-22 is scheduled online during 26-28th April 2022 due to COVID- 19 pandemic. The Regional Climate Center (RCC), Pune of India Meteorological Department (IMD), UK Met Office (UKMO), Regional Integrated Multi-hazard Early-warning System for Asia and Africa (RIMES) and WMO (World Meteorological Organization) involved in organizing this online session of SASCOF and provided technical support.

Overview of the Agenda :
During the 5th – 7th April and 19th- 21st April 2022, a two-part pre-COF training workshop will build upon previous delivered training. Part 1 will focus on foundational seasonal prediction concepts, while Part 2 will focus on basic application of CPT.

The Day 1: April 26, 2022 – Technical session will consider available seasonal prediction output from WMO Global Producing Centers (GPCs) and the Lead Centre for LRF MME together with presentation of country forecasts and discussions.

The Day 2 and 3: April 27-28, 2022 – User oriented sessions focused on sharing, understanding and interpreting the seasonal climate outlook. It is proposed to focus on Agriculture, Water, Disaster Risk Reduction and Health sectors during this session of summer SASCOF. The summer rains in south Asia play a crucial role in the productivity of irrigation based agricultural sectors. A small improvement in agricultural productivity, new, improved or strengthened processes for anticipating and dealing with the adverse effects associated with weather and climate events, the effectiveness of investments or management of disease outbreaks, using climate information, can translate into significant benefits if widely applied across multiple sectors. CSUF will bring together experts in seasonal predictions and operational users from agricultural, irrigation, disaster risk reduction and health departments of South Asian countries creating a platform for understanding seasonal climate information to make effective use to manage climate risks in the region. The session will recommend further needs of the sector in terms of customized products and tools to support decision-making.

All National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) of South Asia; invited national and international experts; experts from WMO and RIMES; experts from RCCs (Tokyo Climate Center (JMA), UK Met Office and other GPCs, IMD and Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM).


SASCOF-22 will prepare a climate outlook for the 2022 summer season covering the months from June to September. NMHSs from SASCOF member countries Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, as well as several regional and global experts will jointly prepare this consensus outlook.

The CSUF special session will focus on interface with users from the Water, Agriculture, Disaster Risk Reduction and Health sector to interpret seasonal climate information and understand their specific needs with a view to further customizes climate information.


Day 1: 26 April 2021
Thailand TimeAgenda ItemResource Person/ Moderator
13:30 -14:05INAUGURAL SESSIONModerator: Dr. Anshul Agarwal, RIMES
14:00Welcome Remarks: Dr. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of Meteorology, IMD
14:05Remarks: Ms. Anahit Hovsepyan, WMO
14:10Remarks: Mr. David Corbelli, ARRCC Program, UK Met Office
14:15Remarks: Mr. A. R. Subbiah, Director, RIMES
14:20Inaugural Address: Dr. M. Ravichandran, Secretary, MoES, Govt. of India
14:25Vote of Thanks: Mr. K. S. Hosalikar, Head, CRS, IMD, Pune
Session I: Seasonal Prediction of South Asian Summer Monsoon (JJAS season): Country Perspectives
Session Chair: Ms. Tamara Janes, UKMO
16.00-16.10Sri Lanka
Session II: Seasonal Prediction of South Asian Summer Monsoon 2022:Global and Regional Perspectives
Session Chair: Dr. D. S. Pai, ICCS, Kerala, India
16:15-16:25JMADr. Takashi Yamada
16:25-16:35KMADr. Hyun-Ju Lee,
16:35-16:45 RCC, IMD, PuneDr. Satyaban Bishori Ratna
16:45-16:55UK Met OfficeDr. Andrew Colman
16:55-17:05NCEPDr. Arun Kumar
17:05-17:15IRIDr. Bohar Singh,
17:15-17:20COMFORT BREAK
17:20-17:40 Pre-Consensus Outlook Presentation RCC Pune, IMDDr. O. P. Sreejith
17:40-17:50Statistical Learning to construct Probabilistic Multi-Model Ensemble for Seasonal Predictions Dr. Nachiketa Acharya,CIRES/NOAA-PSL
17:40-17:50Agreement/ final remarks on the draft text of the consensus forecast JJAS 2022 to be discussed or shared by email by national representatives by end of the day
Close of Day 1
Day 2: 27 April 2022: Climate Services User Forum for Agriculture, Water and Health
Thailand TimeAgenda ItemResource Person/ Moderator
13:30 - 13:35Introduction of the participants (Moderator)
Session III: Presentation of Consensus Outlook for JJAS 2022
Session Chair: Dr. Rupakumar Kolli, IITM
14:00-14:15Presentation of SASCOF-19 Consensus Outlook (RCC Pune, IMD)
14:15-14:30Presentation on recent advances and current issues of Monsoon forecast, Dr. Annamalai, IPRC
Session IV: User Forum for Agriculture, Water and Health
Session Chair: Dr. M. Rajeevan, NCESS
14:30-15:15Agriculture SectorSagar Acharya, DoA Bhutan
Water Sector: Performance of the seasonal flood outlook of monsoon 2021 and case studies from drought and flood effected regions in Bangladesh,Mr. Raihanul Haque, RIMES Bangladesh
Health Sector: Environmental Health Cell - Way To Incorporate Climate Change Issues With Human Health,Dr. Pradeep Awate, State Surveillance Officer, Integrated Disease Surveillance Programme, Govt. of Maharashtra, India
15:15-15:25COMFORT BREAK
15:25-15:40Piloting Agriculture DSS for the agricultural sector: A case study on the application of the different range of forecasts in Rice production,Mr. Asif Udin Bin Noor, RIMES Bangladesh
15:40-15:55Importance of integration of sub seasonal predictions to improve climate services in Sri Lanka case study: Southwest monsoon 2019,Dr. Shiromani, DoM Sri Lanka
15:55-16:10Presentation on application of SASCOF outlook for Agriculture Application,Dr. Catherine Jones, FAO
16.10-17.00Open Discussions/End of SASCOF22 Day 2
Day 3: 28 April 2022 : Climate Services User Forum for Disaster Risk Reduction Sector
Thailand TimeAgenda ItemResource Person/ Moderator
Moderator: Ms. Rebecca Parfitt, UKMO
Session V: Presentation of Consensus Outlook for JJAS 2022
Session Chair: G. Srinivasan, RIMES
14:00-14:15Extended range forecast products for South Asia Dr. D. R. Pattanaik, IMD
14:15-14:30Presentation of SASCOF-19 Consensus OutlookDr. O.P. Sreejith, IMD, Pune
Session VI: User Forum for Disaster Risk Reduction Sector
Session Chair: Dr. A. K. Sahai, IITM
14:30-15:00Climate Hazards and Vulnerability Atlas of India 2022Dr. Pulak Guhathakurta, IMD
15:00-15:10COMFORT BREAK
15:10-15:25Bangladesh Red Crescent’s Experience on using Flood and Cyclone forecasts from BMD for Anticipatory Humanitarian ActionsMr Shajahan, Assistant Director & Project Coordinator, FBF Project, BDRCS
15:25-15:40Updates on seasonal impact outlook by UNESCAPDr. Sanjay Srivastava, UNESCAP
15:40-16:10Talk from NDMA, Representative of NDMA, India
16:10-16:30Discussion on Weather/Climate outlook for Disaster Risk Reduction Sector
16:30-17:00Concluding Remarks/Discussions/End of SASCOF22

List of Participants

South Asian Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF-23) & Climate Services Users Forum (CSUF)

Sr. No.Nominated Participants from NMHSOrganizationCountry
1Khayber Rahmani  Afghanistan Meteorological Department (AMD)Afghanistan
2Fawad AuobiAfghanistan Meteorological Department (AMD)Afghanistan
3Dr. Md. Abdul MannanBangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD)Bangladesh
4Mr. S. M. Quamrul HassanBangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD)Bangladesh
5Ms. Monju SubbaNational Center for Hydrology and Meteorology (NCHM)Bhutan
6Ms. Phuntsho WangmoNational Center for Hydrology and Meteorology (NCHM)Bhutan
8Ms. Chaw Su HlaingDepartment of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH)Myanmar
9Ms. Su Myat NaingDepartment of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH)Myanmar
10Mr  Nasooh IsmailMaldives Meteorological Services (MMS)Maldives
11Ms. Azeema AhmedMaldives Meteorological Services (MMS)Maldives
12Mr. Mohamed AslamMaldives Meteorological Services (MMS)Maldives
13Mr. Sudarshan HumagainDepartment of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM)Nepal
14Mr. Bikash NepalDepartment of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM)Nepal
15Dr. SarfarazPakistan Meteorological Department (PMD)Pakistan
16Dr. Muhammad AfzaalPakistan Meteorological Department (PMD)Pakistan
17Dr. Zaheer Ahmad BabarPakistan Meteorological Department (PMD)Pakistan
18Ms.A.R.P.WarnasosoriyaDepartment of Meteorology (DoM)Sri Lanka
19Mr.T.P.N.PeirisDepartment of Meteorology (DoM)Sri Lanka
20Ms Himesha AlagiyawannaDepartment of Meteorology (DoM)Sri Lanka
Sr. No.List of GPC/RCC PresentersOrganizationCountry
1Dr.Takashi YamadaJapan Meteorological Agency (JMA)Japan
2Dr. Nemoto NoboruJapan Meteorological Agency (JMA)Japan
3Dr. Takahashi KiyotoshiJapan Meteorological Agency (JMA)Japan
5Dr. Nachiketa AcharyaEarth System Modeling, Analysis, and Data (ESMAD) , Penn State UniversityUSA
6Dr. Hyun-Ju LeeLong-Range Forecast Multi-Model Ensemble (LRFMME) WMOSouth Korea
7Dr. Bohar SinghInternational Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI)India
Sr. No.List of International Organization ParticipantsOrganizationCountry
1Dr. Wilfran Moufouma OkiaWorld Meteorological Organization (WMO)Switzerland
2Ms. Anahit HovsepyanWorld Meteorological Organization (WMO)Switzerland
Sr. No.IITM Participants PuneOrganizationCountry
1Dr. R. KrishnanIndian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM)India
2Dr. A. K SahaiIndian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM)India
3Dr. Suryachandra RaoIndian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM)India
4Ms. Susmita JosephIndian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM)India
5Dr. Rupa Kumar Kolli, IITMIndian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM)India
Sr. No.RIMES TeamOrganizationCountry
1A. R. SubbiahRegional Integrated Multi-hazard Early Warning System (RIMES)Thailand
2G. SrinivasanRegional Integrated Multi-hazard Early Warning System (RIMES)Thailand
3K. J. RameshRegional Integrated Multi-hazard Early Warning System (RIMES)Thailand
4Anshul AgarwalRegional Integrated Multi-hazard Early Warning System (RIMES)Thailand
5Itesh DashRegional Integrated Multi-hazard Early Warning System (RIMES)Thailand
6Tschencho DorjiRegional Integrated Multi-hazard Early Warning System (RIMES)Thailand
7Raihan Haque KhanRegional Integrated Multi-hazard Early Warning System (RIMES)Thailand
8Mitesh V SawantRegional Integrated Multi-hazard Early Warning System (RIMES)Thailand
Sr. No.UK Met TeamOrganizationCountry
1Andrew ColmanUK Met Office (UKMO)United Kingdom
2Rebecca ParfittUK Met Office (UKMO)United Kingdom
3Sarah HolmesUK Met Office (UKMO)United Kingdom
4Tamara JanesUK Met Office (UKMO)United Kingdom

SASCOF-23 Outlook for Seasonal Rainfall and Temperature over South Asia during October to December 2022


Below-normal rainfall is likely during October – December (OND) season 2022 over the extreme southern parts of the South Asia including the islands where climatologically we receive good amount of rainfall during the season. Below normal rainfall is also likely over the northwestern parts of South Asia as well as extreme eastern parts of South Asia which normally receive very low rainfall during OND season. Above normal rainfall is likely over most parts of west, central and northeast regions and remaining area of southern parts of South Asia. Remaining part of the region is likely to experience normal or climatological probability for the seasonal rainfall.

During the season, normal to above normal maximum temperatures are likely over northwest, northeast parts of South Asia including foothills of Himalaya. The maximum temperature is likely to be below normal over the west, central and southern parts of South Asia. The minimum temperature is likely to be above normal over most part of the region except parts of west, northwest and southern parts of South Asia.

This consensus climate outlook for the 2022OND season over South Asia has been developed through an expert assessment of the prevailing global climate conditions influencing the South Asian climate and seasonal forecasts from different climate models around the world. Currently La Niña conditions are prevailing over equatorial Pacific region and negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean. These parameters are known to influence the climate variability over South Asia. Latest forecasts from many climate models indicate that La Niña conditions are likely to continue up to the end of year and the negative IOD conditions are likely to weaken by the end of year. Careful consideration is also given to other regional and global factors as well as the intra seasonal variability of the region that can affect the rainfall and temperature patterns over the region.For more information and further updates on the seasonal climate outlook on national scale, the respective National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) may be consulted. The Detailed SASCOF Consensus Outlook Statement is available here

The Enhanced SASCOF Outlook is also available here

Photo Gallery


Note: No questionnaires or survey conducted during SASCOF-23 & CSUF