A suite of statistical forecasting and downscaling tools used to generate seasonal climate predictions, enabling NMHSs to produce probabilistic forecasts tailored to regional and national contexts
IRI Seasonal Forecasting Toolkit
Developer: IRI for Climate and Society
Stage Of Maturity: Fully operational, Mature
- Coverage: Global
- Climate Timescales Covered: Extended Range (Sub-seasonal), Historical / Baseline, Seasonal
Strengths
- CPT: Desktop-based software
- PyCPT: Python-based workflow (scripted, reproducible environment)
- XCAST: Python-based multi-model analysis framework
- Requires local installation and technical expertise
Weaknesses
- Requires technical expertise and training
- Not a user-facing DSS (no direct visualization or dissemination interface)
- Dependent on quality and availability of historical data
- Statistical models may have limitations in capturing complex dynamics
- Requires integration with other systems for operational service delivery
Synergies
- Outputs can be processed and customized using FOCUS
- Can be integrated into operational platforms like Climate Services Toolkit
- Can feed into risk and impact systems such as SMART and SATARK
- Can support sectoral DSSs (e.g., BAMIS, SANKALP)
- Complements dynamical models (e.g., CORDEX South Asia for long-term context)