WMO Lead Centre for Sub-seasonal Prediction Multi-Model Ensemble (S2S MME)

Provides standardized multi-model ensemble sub-seasonal forecast guidance by combining outputs from multiple international forecasting centres to improve forecast reliability and support operational forecasting.

Developer: World Meteorological Organization
Stage Of Maturity: Fully operational

Strengths

  • Combines forecasts from multiple leading prediction centres
  • Reduces dependence on a single model
  • Improves forecast robustness through ensemble consensus
  • Supports operational sub-seasonal forecasting
  • Internationally coordinated and standardized

Weaknesses

  • Requires technical expertise to interpret probabilistic guidance
  • Not a complete decision support system
  • Limited sector-specific advisory functionality
  • Forecast skill varies geographically and seasonally

Synergies

  • Complements seasonal forecast guidance from APCC MME, IRI, and NMME.
  • Provides sub-seasonal forecast inputs for FOCUS.
  • Supports operational forecasting within the Climate Services Toolkit.
  • Can inform impact-based systems such as SMART and SATARK.