Planning Workshop on Impact-Based Forecasting (IBF) and Climate Services
- January 21-24, 2025
- Bangkok, Thailand
The South Asia Hydromet Forum (SAHF) will host the Planning Workshop on Impact- Based Forecasting (IBF) and Climate Services in Bangkok from January 21–24, 2025. This event will convene key stakeholders to advance regional efforts in managing extreme weather events and enhancing resilience to climate change across South Asia.
The workshop will focus on strengthening regional frameworks and fostering collaboration among National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) and other partners. It builds on strategic priorities identified during the 3rd SAHF Executive Council Meeting (December 2023) and the SAHF IV Conference (February 2024).
Focus Areas:
- Impact-Based Forecasting (IBF): Development of comprehensive regional strategies, pilot projects, and toolkits to improve early warning systems and disaster preparedness.
- Climate Services: Enhancing regional understanding and frameworks to support climate-informed decision-making and sustainable development
The workshop is supported by leading technical partners, including the Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System (RIMES), the UK Met Office, and the World Bank, reinforcing SAHF’s mission to promote regional collaboration and resilience-building.
To enhance coordination in managing extreme weather-triggered disasters, and support resilience to climate change in the region, it is crucial for the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) in South Asia to work closely together. The South Asia Hydromet Forum (SAHF) facilitates regional collaboration among its member countries: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System(RIMES) is the technical secretariat to the SAHF . The 3rd SAHF Executive Council meeting (December 2023) and subsequent SAHF IV conference (February 2024, see Annex A) agreed to deepen and broaden its activities in priority areas, including Impact Based Forecasting (IBF) and climate services. The SAHF IBF Working Group (WG), established in 2021 provides a mechanism to support regional training, learning and knowledge exchange amongst NMHSs and key users of services across South Asia.
Impact Based Forecasting: Development and capacity building of IBF approaches has been identified as one of the key priorities for SAHF. Since 2019 a number of partner initiatives such as UK MET Office through the UK Government funded Asia Regional Resilience to a Changing Climate (ARRCC) and World Bank through SAHF Phase 1 and CARE Project have been supporting SAHF IBF. Based on agreements of the SAHF IBF WG meeting (Bangkok, Thailand, 31 July 2024) and climate services side session at SAHF IV (Colombo, Sri Lanka, 8 February 2024) the proposed IBF Workshop to be held in Bangkok from 21-24 January 2025 with support from the Met Office Weather and Climate Services (WISER) Asia Pacific programme (under the UK Government Climate Action for a Resilient Asia initiative) will have following objectives and outcomes.
Climate services: A newer priority for SAHF is the enhancement of climate services in the region. During SAHF IV, a side session on climate services, led by the UK Met Office in partnership with RIMES, explored the status, needs, and priorities for a climate services component in SAHF. While there is a clear requirement, more exploration is needed to understand how a SAHF climate services element (and potential working group) will operate and align with related regional mechanisms such as SASCOF.
IBF - Sessions
Objectives:
- Further develop key priorities for the IBF working group, informed by strategic direction from the SAHF EC, outcomes of SAHF IV, and subsequent priorities identified by the working group.
- Take stock of IBF development, needs, opportunities and priorities in SAHF Member Countries, with a view to piloting common hazard/s and approaches across the region.
- Translate priorities into a clear implementation plan(s) for the SAHF IBF working group to enable allocation of partner / program resources over 2025-28.
- Agree roles of SAHF IBF WG member countries, regional and international partners in supporting delivery of the IBF implementation plans.
- Initiate development of toolkit approach to support the design, development, implementation and sustainability of IBFEWS in the region, under SAHF.
- Ensure IBF priorities align with and where relevant support the objectives of other SAHF working groups including climate services.
Expected Outcomes:
- Development of clear, resourced implementation plan(s), with defined roles and responsibilities of members and partners addressing priorities of the SAHF IBF WG for the
period 2025-28. Aligned and linked to other SAHF WG priorities and plans. - Establishment of a regional framework ‘toolkit’ approach to support implementation, mainstreaming, and sustainability of IBF across South Asia and in SAHF Member Countries.
- Agreement and initiation of ‘piloting’ and knowledge sharing mechanisms across common hazard/s and geographies across the South Asia region.
- IBF linkages with other SAHF working groups identified and established.
- Informing paper for approval by SAHF EC.
CLIMATE SERVICES - Sessions
Objectives:
- Improve understanding of availability, application and needs for climate services, at different scales.
- Stocktake of National Frameworks for Climate Services (NFCS), and identification of opportunities and barriers to advance NFCS development, including role of NMHSs.
- Informed by the above, identification of key priorities for a climate services component under SAHF.
- Agreement of an interim climate services WG.
Expected Outcomes:
- Improved understanding of climate services in the South Asia region and identification of initial priorities and outline work plans SAHF.
- Climate services WG established with agreed roles and responsibilities.
- Informing paper for approval by SAHF EC.
| DAY 1: Tuesday 21st January | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Agenda Item | Timing | Moderator/Speaker/Presenter(s) | Content |
| Session Chair: Ms. Helen Caughey, UKMO | |||
| Welcome Remarks | 9:00-9:15 | Dr. K.J. Ramesh, RIMES/Mr. David Corbelli, UKMO | |
| Introductions | 9:15-9:45 | Mr. Raihanul Haque Khan, RIMES | Participant and facilitator's introductions |
| Workshop Objectives | 9:45-10:15 | RIMES/Met Office | - Ensure broad framing and awareness of SAHF - EC declaration/s, SAHF IV outcomes and commitments |
| Coffee Break | 10:15-10:30 | ||
| Regional and national plans and priorities for IBF development / current status of development | 10:30-11:00 11:00-12:00 12:00-12:30 | IBF WG leads RIMES / World Bank / University of Salford RIMES / Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan India Nepal Maldives Myanmar Pakistan Sri Lanka | - Review of current IBF WG priorities - Review of DSS to support IBF - Summary of ‘posters’ provided by countries attending - Elevator pitch: absolute max of 3 mins per poster (this is just a quick summary). - Finish after lunch. |
| Lunch | 12:30-13:30 | ||
| Session Chair: Dr. Anshul Agarwal, RIMES | |||
| Regional and national plans and priorities for IBF development / current status of development (continued) | 13:30-15:30 | All | - Conclusion of ‘posters’ if any still outstanding. - Breakout interactive session on crowd sourcing potential solutions to challenges identified in the posters. - Facilitation of poster discussion session. |
| Coffee | 15:30-16:00 | ||
| Regional and national coordination with institutions supporting SAHF and other fora/platforms in the SAHF geography | 16:00-17:00 | - Dr. Giriraj Amarnath, Principal Researcher Disaster Risk Management and Climate Resilience, IWMI - Dr. Sanjay Srivastava, Chief, Disaster Risk Reduction ICT and Disaster Risk Reduction Division, UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) - Dr. Jothiganesh Shanmugasundaram, Regional Technical Lead, WFP - Mr. Birendra Bajracharya, Project Coordinator; Chief of Party-SERVIR-HKH, ICIMOD - Dr. Senaka Basnayake, Director for the Climate Resilience Department, Asian Disaster Preparedness Center | - Brief presentations 7-8 mins (maximum) by regional organization represented |
| Day 1 Outputs - Mapping of activities, priorities, needs - Understanding of current capabilities and challenges - Identification of ‘baseline’ to measure SAHF/WISER progress and impact - Group understanding on human insights, coproduction, and interactions with ‘DSS’ and related systems/tools. | |||
| DAY 2: Wednesday 22nd January | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Agenda Item | Timing | Moderator/Speaker/Presenter(s) | Content |
| Session Chair: Mr. David Corbelli, UKMO | |||
| Review and summary from day 1. | 09:00-09:30 | Ms. Helen Caughey, UKMO | - Summary of Day 1 discussions |
| Understanding key, hazards, challenges and capabilities | 09:30-10:45 | Ms. Helen Caughey, UKMO | - Interactive session on key hazards, and capabilities (sector or country led) |
| Coffee Break | 10:45-11:00 | ||
| Interaction with other SAHF working groups | 11:00-11:45 | Mr. Quamrul Hassan, Meteorologist, BMD/ CoChair NWP WG | - Presentation on NWP priorities and plans - Group discussion |
| Interaction with other SAHF working groups | 11:45-12:30 | Ms. Monju Subba, Senior Hydromet Officer, NCHM/Co-Chair CE WG | - Presentation on capacity enhancement WG priorities and plans - Group discussion |
| Lunch | 12:30-13:30 | ||
| Session Chair: Dr. Sanjay Srivastava, UNESCAP | |||
| Links to other regional fora and platforms | 13.30-14.00 | Mr. Jochen Luther, Technical Coordinator (Services), WMO | - Role of SAHF in supporting WMO strategy - Summary of role and future direction of WMO platforms (SWFP South Asia and SASCOF) |
| Introduction to IBF toolkit approach through interactive exercises | 14:00-14:45 | Ms. Helen Caughey, UKMO | - Understanding Forecast uncertainty exercise - “Downscaling” for warnings exercise (highlighting value of co-production using Nepal example) |
| Coffee | 14:45 -15:00 | ||
| Role of human in decision making/valueadded services | 15:00-16:00 | Ms. Helen Roberts, Social Meteorologist, UKMO | Understanding ‘human value-added’ aspects to forecasting and early warning |
| Introduction to IBF toolkit approach through interactive exercises (Part 2) | 16:00-16:50 | Ms. Helen Caughey, UKMO | “Downscaling” for warnings exercise (highlighting value of co-production using Nepal example) |
| 16:50-17:00 | Met Office | Day 2 summary and wrap up | |
| DAY 3: Thursday 23rd January | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Agenda Item | Timing | Moderator/Speaker/Presenter(s) | Content |
| Session Chair: Ms. Ruby Rose, RIMES | |||
| Discussion around IBF toolkit development | 09:00-09:45 | Met Office | Interactive discussion and planning around what resources would be needed and the context which it would be good for these to address. Identification of any potential case studies or examples which could be developed (like Nepal example). |
| IBF workplan development | 09:45-12:30 | Met Office | - Group discussion - Interactive session/s aiming to frame broad activities for next 2 years and line of site beyond this. |
| Lunch | 12:30 – 13:30 | ||
| Session Chair: Dr. K J Ramesh, RIMES | |||
| Resourcing, WISER AP mechanisms and process and GESI approaches and considerations | 13:30-15:30 | Mr. David Corbelli, UKMO RCCC | - Introducing WISER mechanisms - Group discussion on support and resource requirements - Specific session on reaching and evidencing impact for vulnerable communities inc. GESI and related areas |
| IBF workplan development presentation | 15:30-16:30 | Met Office | - Group/s feedback from the workplan development |
| Summary and wrap up | 16:30-17:00 | Met Office / RIMES | - Summary of key findings, actions - Maintaining engagement and traction - Next steps and timelines |
| DAY 4: Friday 24th January (Climate Services) | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Agenda Item | Timing | Moderator/Speaker/Presenter(s) | Content |
| Session Chair: Dr. Rupa Kumar Kolli | |||
| Introduction and scene setting | 09:00-09:30 | Met Office | - Introduction to SAHF CS - Recap of exploration session at 2024 SAHF - Recap of online consultation |
| Interactive exercise: roles in climate services | 09:30-10:00 | Met Office | - What is the expertise in the room? - Who is developing CS in their role? - Reflections on successes or challenges in CS |
| South Asia Climate Services in 2030 - what could it look like? | 10:00-10:40 | Met Office/RIMES | - If we were here in 5 years, what would we like to look back on? - What does success look like? |
| Coffee Break | 10:40-11:00 | ||
| Aims for a SAHF WG on Climate Services | 11:00-12:30 | Met Office/ RIMES | - Exploration of what a Climate Services WG could do, with examples from other WGs - Including presentations/perspectives from RIMES, IBF and NWP WGs - Plenary reflecting back on 2030 vision - What are the other aligned initiatives that are happening? - What would be the impact if we didn’t do this? |
| Coffee Break | 12:30-13:30 | ||
| Session Chair: Mr. David Corbelli, UKMO | |||
| Deep dive on WG priorities (carousel activity) | 13:30-14:45 | Met Office/ RIMES | - Tables with chosen priorities, explore (how, who, gaps, challenges) - Include focus on GESI, ethics |
| Coffee Break | 14:45-15:00 | ||
| Practical decisions and make-up of WG | 15:00-16:00 | Met Office/ RIMES | - Voting on who, what, how, when? - How often should a WG meet? - Role of RIMES |
| Closing remarks | 16:00-16:30 | Met Office | - Summary of key findings, actions - Maintaining engagement and traction - Next steps and timelines |
| Close | |||
- IBF WG leads
- Dr. K. J. Ramesh, RIMES
- Mr. David Corbelli, UKMO
- Mr. Raihanul Haque Khan, RIMES
- RIMES / World Bank / University of Salford
- Dr. Giriraj Amarnath, Principal Researcher Disaster Risk Management and Climate Resilience, IWMI
- Dr. Sanjay Srivastava, Chief, Disaster Risk Reduction ICT and Disaster Risk Reduction Division, UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP)
- Dr. Jothiganesh Shanmugasundaram, Regional Technical Lead, WFP
- Mr. Birendra Bajracharya, Project Coordinator; Chief of Party-SERVIR-HKH, ICIMOD
- Dr. Senaka Basnayake, Director for the Climate Resilience Department, Asian Disaster Preparedness Center
- Ms. Helen Caughey, UKMO
- Mr. Quamrul Hassan, Meteorologist, BMD/ CoChair NWP WG
- Ms. Monju Subba, Senior Hydromet Officer, NCHM/Co-Chair CE WG
- Mr. Jochen Luther, Technical Coordinator (Services), WMO
- Ms. Helen Roberts, Social Meteorologist, UKMO
- Mr. David Corbelli, UKMO