Regional Workshop on Impact-Based Forecasting: Heat Season Review & Cold Season Planning
- Sep 29 - Oct 01, 2026
- Bangkok, Thailand
The South Asia Hydromet Forum Impact-Based Forecasting (SAHF IBF) project, supported by the WISER Asia Pacific Program, and implemented by RIMES and UK Met Office, is supporting transformational change in regional capability and capacity for an impact-based approach to early warning services for temperature based hazards across South Asia.
The project's approach rests on four mutually reinforcing pillars: (a) developing a Regional IBF Framework and Toolkit for temperature hazards; (b) testing the tools through national heat- and cold-wave demonstrations; (c) building capacity through Training of Trainers (ToT); and (d) establishing mechanisms for wider rollout, institutionalization and sustainability beyond the current project phase.
Two regional workshops have brought countries together so far:
- Regional Workshop on Framework and Toolkit Development (Bangkok, Nov 2025): brought countries together to assess data landscapes, map institutional roles, share early practices, and produce each country's preliminary demonstration plan, laying the groundwork for a common regional reference framework.
- Regional Workshop on Training of Trainers and National Demonstration Planning (Feb 2026): built forecaster and focal-point capacity end-to-end (forecast-to-impact pathway, thresholds, communication, operations) and finalized national demonstration plans for the 2026 heat and cold seasons
Since then, participating countries have implemented their first round of national heat-season demonstrations (broadly March to August 2026), testing impact-based thresholds, advisories, and communication pathways for heat-related risks in the health, agriculture and livestock sectors, to name a few. Countries have also begun using the INSTANT South Asia forecasting portal to access and visualize temperature guidance.
With this first heat-season cycle now complete, and the cold season (broadly November 2026 - February 2027) approaching, this is a timely moment to capture lessons while they are fresh, help countries translate that learning into cold-season demonstration plans or, where cold hazards are not significant, into El Niño preparedness planning, and consolidate MEL findings and sustainability discussions ahead of a potential next phase.
Objectives
This workshop brings together NMHS representatives, sector partners and project focal points to:
- Review the implementation of the national demonstrations.
- Capture lessons learned, challenges, successes, and good practices across countries.
- Assess how current project has addressed or is addressing the gaps and challenges across IBF value chain previously reported by SAHF member countries.
- Identify opportunities for scaling up, sustaining, or expanding the demonstrations in a potential next phase.
- Prepare participating countries for the upcoming cold season (where applicable), and for anticipated El Niño impacts
- Continue strengthening regional collaboration and peer learning.
Expected Outcomes
- A validated, cross-country synthesis of lessons learned, challenges, successes and good practices from the first heat-season demonstration round.
- Agreed project-wide MEL findings and recommendations.
- A prioritized feature list to guide development of the INSTANT Portal's cold-hazard module.
- First-draft, peer-reviewed national action plans for the next season — cold-season demonstration plans or El Niño preparedness plans, as applicable to each country.
- Articulated country- and regional-level commitments on sustainability, institutionalization and a potential next project phase.
Target Participants
The workshop will bring together representatives from:
- National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs)
- Relevant user agencies (e.g., health, agriculture, livestock, disaster management, water, urban services) that have partnered up with NMHSs in the design and implementation of national IBF demonstrations.
- Development partners and technical organizations engaged in IBF work in the region, supporting coordination, technical alignment, and knowledge exchange.
| DAY 1 - Reviewing the Heat Season | |
|---|---|
| Time | Session |
| 08:30 - 09:00 | Registration |
| 09:00 - 09:20 | Opening Session Welcome remarks (RIMES, UKMO)
Mr. A.R. Subbiah, Director General, RIMES Ms. Helen Caughey, Senior International Development Manager, UK Met Office |
| Session I: Recap and Overview – Where Each Country Started and What Has Changed | |
| 09:30 – 09:40 | Project Recap Dr. Anshul Agarwal SAHF Team Lead, RIMES |
| 09:30 – 09:40 | UK Met Office – WISER Asia Pacific Programme Expectations and Outcomes Ms. Helen Caughey Senior International Development Manager, UK Met Office |
| 09:40 – 10:25 | Brief Country Opening Remarks, Demonstration Updates, and Poster Highlights Strict 5-min slot per country to cover three things:
|
| 10:25 – 11:00 | Poster Gallery Walk: Then and Now (2025 vs 2026) (self-paced) followed by or during Morning Break |
| Session II: Thematic Discussions - What Did We Collectively Learn? How these sessions run: each theme opens with representative countries giving 8 minutes maximum on one concrete case from their demonstration, then moves into open discussion and country sharing for the remainder of the slot. Countries are also encouraged to share insights and experiences on flashcards for posting and discussions in later sessions. Facilitators consult with countries on themes in advance and run the open discussions. |
|
| 11:00 – 11:50 | Theme A: Thresholds, Data, Impact Analysis and Localizing IBF Products Covers meteorological and impact data gaps, testing and validating thresholds, and moving from national/default thresholds toward region or station-specific ones. |
| 11:50 – 12:30 | Theme B: User Engagement, Feedback Loops and Demand-Driven Services The focus is on building relationships with user sectors on IBF (some, from scratch), setting up regular feedback mechanisms, and letting user demand shape what gets built. Sectors which were active and provided feedback on the advisories? What are the benefits of new or enhanced partnerships? What barriers/key challenges were faced? What is required to formalize/sustain partnerships? |
| 12:30 – 13:30 | Lunch Break |
| 13:30 – 14:10 | Theme C: Reaching and Serving Users — Inclusive, Last-Mile, Early Action Communication How advisories are designed and communicated so they actually reach and serve the people who need them. Who was in the room during consultations, whose vulnerabilities shaped the severity levels and recommended actions, which early actions were prioritized and for whom, and which channels were used to reach groups that standard dissemination misses? What different mechanisms were developed and used for comms and what is the estimated reach? Demands which emerged from the users? |
| 14:10 – 14:50 | Theme D: From Pilots to Institutionalization — Frameworks, Partnerships and Sustaining IBF What it takes for a demonstration to outlast the pilot phase, and the project itself. What evidence and change may be required to sustain and upscale? Change can relate to a range of areas: a) NMHS capacity (technical and resource); b) User agencies (technical and resource); and c) Gaps in mandates or policies (that may need to be addressed higher up policy/planning chain). |
| 14:50 – 15:20 | Stakeholder Feedback and Progress Markers Review Mr. Thanut Rittichai Monitoring, Evaluation and Learning (MEL) Specialist, RIMES Presentation of feedback collected through post-activity evaluation surveys and key informant interviews across the demonstrations |
| 15:20 – 15:40 | Afternoon Break |
| Session III: Looking Forward and Initial Next-Phase Planning | |
| 15:40 – 17:00 | Looking Forward: Priorities for the Next Phase – Working Session Next-phase direction and focus disaggregated to national solutions (country-specific, led by the NMHS with partners’ support) and regional solutions (applicable across countries, supported by RIMES/UKMO/partners). Four mixed-country groups proposing interventions on below themes:
|
| DAY 2 - Learning and Planning for the Next Season | |
|---|---|
| Time | Session |
| 09:00 - 09:10 | Recap and Day 2 Overview Quick recap of Day 1 outcomes and framing for the day. |
| Session IV: Cold-Related Hazards – Impacts, Forecasting, and Anticipatory Action | |
| 09:10 – 09:40 | Country Sharing: Cold-Season Risks, Current Monitoring, and Gaps Strict 4-minutes per country (from pool of: Bhutan, Nepal, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh) on questions below:
|
| 09:40 – 09:55 | Forecast Generation for Cold Hazards and Potential Impacts and Early Warning Considerations Dr. Shiromani Jayawardena SAHF Adviser, RIMES |
| 09:55 – 10:10 | End-to-end Process of IBF for Cold Hazards Dr. Radheshyam Sharma Scientist D, India Meteorology Department (IMD) Dr. Raghavendra Raju Nadimpalli Scientist D, India Meteorology Department (IMD) |
| 10:10 – 10:25 | Cold Wave Anticipatory Action in Nepal Mr. Anuj Tiwari Hydrometeorologist, People-in-Need |
| 10:25 – 10:40 | Cold Wave Anticipatory Action and Impact-Based Forecasting in Nepal: Lessons Learned, Good Practices, and Future Considerations Er. Suraj Gautam (Virtual) Executive Director, Institute of Himalayan Risk Reduction |
| 10:40 – 10:55 | Piloting Anticipatory Action for Cold Wave in Bangladesh Mr. Simon Rahman (Virtual) Senior Manager, Humanitarian, DRR & Climate, Save the Children in Bangladesh |
| 10:55 – 11:10 | Morning Break |
| Session V: El Niño Outlooks, Anticipated Impacts, and Early Warning and Anticipatory Action Initiatives | |
| 11:10 – 11:25 | Global and Regional El Niño Outlooks, Early Warning, and Anticipatory Action Initiatives Jochen Luther (Virtual) Technical Coordinator (Services), Regional Office for Asia and the South-West Pacific, World Meteorological Organization (WMO) |
| 11:25 – 11:40 | Ocean Heat Waves and Anticipated Impacts Dr. Rohith B. (Virtual) Scientist C, INCOIS |
| 11:40 – 12:10 | RIMES Earth System Application AI Language model (REAL): Leveraging AI for Impact Based Forecasting Sanim Shakya Systems Development and Integration Specialist, RIMES |
| Session VI: Partners Session – Regional and Global Linkages with SAHF IBF | |
| 12:10 – 12:25 | CREWS South Asia Project Mr. Nakul Prasad Project Officer, World Meteorological Organization (WMO) |
| 12:25 – 12:40 | GHHIN South Asia Hub Dr. Vishwas Chitale (Virtual) Chair, GHHIN South Asia / CEEW |
| 12:40 – 12:55 | South Asia Center for Climate and Health Application (SACCHA) and Heat Health Hub Dr. Roxy Mathew Koll (Virtual) Climate Scientist, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) |
| 12:55 – 13:10 | Heat Services and Governance Pilots, Heat Maturity Model, and the Handbook and Guidance Mr. Armel Castellan Extreme Heat Services Technical Advisor, Climate and Health Joint Office, WMO Climate and Health Joint Office |
| 13:10 – 14:15 | Lunch Break |
| 14:30 – 15:30 | Parallel Country Action Planning: Finalizing the Plans (Working Session) Countries build out the directions set on Day 1 into a working action plan, now with the cold-wave, El Niño and INSTANT inputs in hand. Tracks:
|
| 15:30 – 15:45 | Afternoon Break |
| 15:45 – 16:45 | Action Plan Review: Peer and Expert Feedback Countries present their draft plans for feedback from peer countries and technical experts, and revise on the spot where possible. |
| 16:45 – 17:00 | Workshop Synthesis, Commitments and Closing Remarks |
| DAY 3 - Training on Tools and Co-production | |
|---|---|
| Time | Session |
| 09:00 – 10:15 | INSTANT Portal: Progress and Next Steps, Including the Cold Season Module Update on the INSTANT South Asia portal's current capabilities and the planned cold-hazard module, with structured collection of user feedback. Mr. Raihanul Khan Bangladesh Country Program Lead, RIMES Mr. Sajib Hasan IT Expert, RIMES |
| 10:00 – 10:30 | Morning Break |
| 10:30 – 12:00 | NLAS as a Training Case: Co-Producing a Sector DSS Tool Dr. A.K.M Rakibul Hasan Upazila Livestock Officer (Leave, Deputation and Training Reserve Post), Bangladesh Department of Livestock Services Mr. Raihanul Khan Bangladesh Country Program Lead, RIMES Mr. Sajib Hasan IT Expert, RIMES Bangladesh’s National Livestock Advisory System (NLAS): A worked example of how a sector-specific decision-support tool is built with the sector, and what it takes to move from pilot to operational use. |
| 12:00 – 13:00 | Lunch Break |
| 13:00 – 14:30 | Risk and Resilience Portal and IBF Tools Dr. Leila Salarpour Goodarzi Associate Economic Affairs Officer, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) The Risk and Resilience Portal, integrating S2S outlooks into impact maps, and user feedback on ESCAP’s IBF tools. |
| 14:30 – 16:00 | Country Consultations, Bilateral Meetings |
| 16:00 - onwards | Closing and Afternoon Break |