Regional Workshop on Impact-Based Forecasting: Training of Trainers (ToT) and National Demonstration Planning for Temperature-related Hazards

South Asia is increasingly exposed to temperature-related hazards, with climate change intensifying heatwaves, cold spells, and unseasonal extremes that place growing pressure on public health, livelihoods, and climate-sensitive sectors. These risks highlight the need for more actionable, people-centered early warning systems, where impact-based forecasting (IBF) supports timely and informed decision-making by linking hazards with exposure and vulnerability. Under the WISER Asia Pacific-funded South Asia Hydromet Forum (SAHF) IBF Project, a first Regional Workshop was held to develop a regional framework and toolkit for IBF of temperature-related hazards. The workshop helped establish common concepts and approaches and initiated discussions on how the framework could be applied through national demonstration activities. Building on this foundation, South Asian countries began identifying priority sectors, vulnerable groups, and institutional arrangements for applying the framework in national contexts.

In this context, the Second Regional SAHF IBF Workshop is designed to bring these two aspects together through a combined Training-of-Trainers and National Demonstration Planning approach. The workshop builds on the outcomes of the first regional engagement by shifting from conceptual understanding to applied, operational, and replicable IBF practice.

The workshop aims to strengthen the capacity of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) in South Asia to design, operationalize, and communicate Impact-Based Forecasts for temperature-related hazards. It will follow an end-to-end IBF approach, guiding participants through the full IBF process, from forecast generation and interpretation, to impact analysis, trigger and threshold development, action-led warnings, and effective communication and dissemination.

The first four (4) days will be delivered as a Training-of-Trainers, equipping participants not only with technical knowledge but also with facilitation skills and practical tools that can be cascaded at their respective in-country national and sub-national levels. Key thematic areas include exposure and vulnerability analysis, integration of Gender Equality, Disability and Social Inclusion (GEDSI), development of multi-indicator triggers, risk-based decision-making, behavioral insights for communication, and operational IBF workflows.

The final day is dedicated to National IBF Demonstrations, where participating countries will apply the concepts and tools introduced during the ToT sessions to refine and finalize their country-specific IBF pilot designs. This includes defining priority temperature-related hazards, target sectors, triggers and thresholds, early actions, communication approaches, and next steps for implementation.

The  Workshop aims to:

  • Build national capacity through a Training-of-Trainers (ToT) approach by delivering targeted training on priority technical and operational gaps, and by clarifying roles, cascading mechanisms, and the technical assistance required to sustain IBF implementation beyond the project period.
  • Finalize national IBF demonstration plans for implementation during the 2026 heat and cold seasons, including agreement on objectives, scope, phasing, roles, and institutional arrangements.
  • Strengthen coherence between national demonstrations and the regional IBF framework and toolkit, ensuring technical consistency, effective co-production, and context-specific adaptation across participating countries.

Expected Outputs:

  • An agreed Training-of-Trainers (ToT) arrangement, including national focal points, defined roles, and cascading and technical support mechanisms.
  • Finalized national IBF demonstration plans for the 2026 heat and cold seasons, covering objectives, priority sectors and locations, implementation phasing, and coordination arrangements.
  • Confirmed alignment with the regional IBF framework and toolkit, ensuring consistent concepts, methodologies, and operational approaches across countries.

The workshop will bring together representatives from:

  • National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs), who will serve as the initial national Training-of-Trainers (ToT) focal points. These participants will form the core of national ToT teams responsible for cascading IBF knowledge and supporting national demonstration implementation. As introduced during the first regional workshop, RIMES has shared preferred qualifications and skills to guide NMHS nominations.
  • Relevant user agencies (e.g., health, agriculture, disaster management, water, urban services) that will partner with NMHSs in the design and implementation of national IBF demonstrations.
  • Development partners and technical organizations engaged in the SAHF IBF Working Group, supporting coordination, technical alignment, and knowledge
    exchange.

Training-of-Trainers (ToT) Nomination Criteria:

  • Technical background in climate services, forecasting, and/or disaster risk management
  • Experience working with sectoral user agencies (e.g., DRM, agriculture, health, water)
  • Familiarity with impact-based forecasting (IBF) concepts and applications
  • Strong communication and facilitation skills
  • Experience in training delivery, coaching, or mentoring approaches
  • Commitment to participate in all ToT activities and national demonstration phases
  • Formal endorsement from NMHS senior management
DAY 1: 09th February 2026
Regional IBF Context & Forecast-to-Impact Pathway
08:30 AM – 17:00 PM (Kathmandu, Nepal Time, UTC+5:45)
SessionTimeDetailsLead/Speaker(s)
Registration08:30 AM – 09:00 AMRegistration of participantsRIMES Secretariat
Opening Session09:00 AM – 09:30 AM- Welcome Remarks
- Workshop Overview
- Participant Introduction / Group Photo
- RIMES, UKMO and DHM
- Dr. Anshul Agarwal, Danna Valdez, and Peter Ferrer, RIMES
Session 1: IBF for Temperature-related Hazards – Refresher (Applied)09:30 AM - 10:00 AM- End-to-end IBF value chain for temperature hazards
- IBF as a process supporting decision-making, not standalone product
- Temperature Hazards in South Asia
Dr. K.J. Ramesh, RIMES
Session 2: Regional IBF Framework and Toolkit10:00 AM – 10:20 PM- Regional IBF Framework Overview
- IBF Toolkit components
Danna Valdez, RIMES
Morning Break10:20 AM – 10:40 AM
Session 3: Forecast Generation for Temperature Hazards10:40 AM – 11:30 PM- Forecast types, lead times, and uncertainties
- Strengths and limitations of temperature forecasts for IBF
- Bias correction for temperature hazards forecasting to address how biases translate into indices
- Dr. Shiromani Jayawardena & Rabbani Golam, RIMES
Session 4: Overview / Demo of Regional Tool (INSTANT South Asia)11:30 PM – 12:30 PMCo-design session of the INSTANT Tool (show demo, followed by group work to get user feedback on the design)- Rabbani Golam, Raihanul Khan & Asif Udin Bin Noor, RIMES
Lunch Break12:30 PM – 13:30 PM
Session 4 Cont’n: INSTANT Tool Co-Design Session13:30 PM – 14:30 PMCo-design session of the INSTANT Tool (show demo, followed by group work to get user feedback on the design)- Rabbani Golam, Raihanul Khan & Asif Udin Bin Noor, RIMES
Afternoon Break14:30 PM – 14:45 PM
Session 5 + Group Exercise 1: Translating Forecasts into Impacts14:45 PM – 16:45 PM- Introduction to Impact Tables and their role in IBF
- Examples of Impact Tables for temperature related hazards
- Introduction to facilitating national co-production of impact tables
- Development of temperature related impact tables
- Helen Caughey, UKMO and Ramiz Khan & Madhab Uprety, RCCC
Wrap-up and Reflections16:45 PM – 17:00 PM
DAY 2: 10th February 2026
Exposure, Vulnerability, GEDSI, and Impact Prioritization
08:30 AM – 17:00 PM (Kathmandu, Nepal Time, UTC+5:45)
SessionTimeDetailsLead/Speaker(s)
Signing of Attendance08:30 AM – 09:00 AM
Daily Recap09:00 AM – 09:15 AMParticipants
Session 6: Exposure, Vulnerability, and GEDSI in IBF09:15 AM - 10:45 AM- Understanding exposure vs vulnerability in the context of temperature-related hazards
- Indicators and data limitations, practical GEDSI integration (i.e., health-related vulnerability, socioeconomic and livelihood sensitivity, urban and environmental factors, GEDSI, etc.)
- Hands-on exercise for assessing and generating vulnerability and exposure indices
- Discussion on the inclusion of exposure and vulnerability layers / datasets for the regional tool
- Why GEDSI is a critical consideration for temperature hazards
- Asif Uddin Bin Noor/Raihanul Haque Khan, RIMES
- Nina Karla Jaim, RIMES
- Asif Uddin Bin Noor/Raihanul Haque Khan, RIMES
Morning Break10:45 AM – 11:00 AM
Session 7: GEDSI Integration into IBF Design11:00 AM – 12:30 PM- Aligning impact severity to alert levels with sector and decision thresholds
- Prioritization and linking scientific information with sector decision needs
- Helen Caughey, UKMO and Ramiz Khan & Madhab Uprety, RCCC
Lunch Break12:30 PM – 13:30 PM
Group Exercise 213:30 AM – 15:00 PM- Refinement of Impact Tables with GEDSI Lens
- Considering different approaches needed for IBF warnings
- Helen Caughey, UKMO and Ramiz Khan & Madhab Uprety, RCCC
Session 8: Risk Evaluation and Decision-Making for IBF15:00 PM – 16:00 PM- Introduction to ESCAP’s Risk and Resilience Portal
- Hands-on Training
- Parvathy Subha, ESCAP
Afternoon Break16:00 PM – 16:15 PM
National Pilot Demonstration Clinic – Round 1 (3 countries)16:15 PM – 17:15 PM1. Bhutan
2. Pakistan
3. Myanmar
Wrap-up and Reflections17:15 PM – 17:30 PM
DAY 3: 11th February 2026
Triggers, Thresholds, and Decision-Making
08:30 AM – 17:00 PM (Kathmandu, Nepal Time, UTC+5:45)
SessionTimeDetailsLead/Speaker(s)
Signing of Attendance08:30 AM – 09:00 AM
Daily Recap09:00 AM – 09:15 AMParticipant
Session 9: Trigger and Threshold Development for Temperature Hazards09:15 AM - 10:00 AM- Why Local Level Thresholds are Important?
- How to define location- and sector-specific thresholds?
- Localized Threshold Determination - a hands-on exercise
- Raihanul Khan & Rabbani Golam, RIMES
Morning Break10:00 AM – 10:15 AM
Session 9 Cont’n:10:15 AM – 11:30 AM- Overview of Start Network’s recent activation in Nepal for Cold Wave

- Triggers and thresholds development for temperature related hazards
- Aligning triggers with decision timelines
- Linking triggers with institutional decision protocols
- Examples of how thresholds are defined for AA and used in various sectors/settings

- Translating temperature-related forecast to locally actionable early warning (PIN’s Experience)

- Triggers of Anticipatory Action vs public early warnings, and harmonisation challenges


- Helen Caughey, UKMO & Pranav Dahal, START Network

- Ramiz Khan & Madhab Uprety, RCCC

- Anuj Tiwari (People In Need Nepal)

- Damien Riquet (FAO) / Jochen Luther (WMO) (Online)
Session 10: End-to-end IBF Process: IMD Experience11:30 AM – 12:30 PM- IMD’s approach, triggers, thresholds and alerts for different geographical zones and user sectors
- Temperature forecasting and verification approach
- Live Demonstrations of DSS Tools / Hands-On Exercise
IMD
Lunch Break12:30 AM – 13:30 PM
Group Exercise 313:30 PM – 15:30 PM- ToT action orientated advice in warning. A practical exercise which delegates can lead in their national contexts to encourage stakeholders to approach IBF from an action orientated perspective.- Helen Caughey, UKMO and Ramiz Khan & Madhab Uprety, RCCC
Afternoon Break15:30 PM – 15:45 PM
National Pilot Demonstration Clinic – Round 2 (3 countries)15:45 PM – 17:00 PM1. Nepal
2. Bangladesh
3. Sri Lanka
Wrap-up and Reflections17:00 PM – 17:15 PM
DAY 4: 12th February 2026
Communication, Operations, and Training-of-Trainer Skills
08:30 AM – 17:00 PM (Kathmandu, Nepal Time, UTC+5:45)
SessionTimeDetails (To Be Finalized)Lead/Speaker(s)
Signing of Attendance08:30 AM – 09:00 AM
Daily Recap09:00 AM – 09:15 AMParticipants
Session 11: Action-led Warnings for Temperature Hazards09:15 AM - 10:45 AM- Generic Elements of SOPs and EAPs
- Designing advisories linking IBF forecasts, impacts, and recommended actions to SOPs and EAP activation
- Aligning alert levels with actions for different user groups

- Experience in early action protocols
- Examples of action-oriented advisories for heat-related hazards

- Case Example: Operationalizing IBF through anticipatory action in Nepal (Flood Example)
- Dr. KJ Ramesh, Raihanul Khan, & Asif Uddin Bin Noor, RIMES

- Ramiz Khan & Madhab Uprety, RCCC

- Man Kshetri & Sunil Bogati, WFP Nepal
Morning Break10:45 AM – 11:00 AM
Session 12: Behavioral Insights and Risk Communication11:00 AM – 12:30 PM- ToT approach to engage stakeholders at a national level in risk communication.
- Critical review of communication approaches and messaging.
- Communication challenges in temperature-related forecasts and warnings.
- Tailoring messages for different sectors and different levels of risk
- Helen Caughey, UKMO and Ramiz Khan & Madhab Uprety, RCCC
Lunch Break12:30 PM – 13:30 PM
Con’t of of Session 10: End-to-end IBF Process: IMD Experience13:30 AM – 13:45 PM- Examples of action-oriented advisories for heat- and/or cold-related hazards:
- Experience of ICMR and Agriculture (and other sectors) (end-to-end comprehensive SOP/EAP)
- Communication of action-led warnings for various sectors (e.g. public health, agriculture, etc)
IMD
Session 13: Operational IBF Workflows and Decision Support13:45 AM – 15:30 PM- Integrating IBF into existing NMHS operational workflows (Examples of integration from UK Met Office and DHM Nepal) and Draft IBF Competency Framework

- Coordination between NMHSs and sector partners

- Minimum operational requirements and ensuring sustainability beyond IBF pilot demonstrations:
- Enhancing Impact-Based Forecasting in Nepal: Findings from the Stimson Assessment

- Minimum operational requirements needed for heatwave and coldwave IBF with allowance for future expansion and scale up
- Helen Caughey, UKMO

- Raihanul Khan & Asif Uddin Bin Noor, RIMES

- Jeevika Khadka, Stimson Center

- IMD
Afternoon Break15:30 PM – 15:45 PM
Session 13 Cont’n:15:45 PM – 16:45 PM- Use of DSS tools and templates:
- ESCAP’s Relevant Initiatives and Available Tools
- Intro and Hands-on Training to IBF Tool:
- loss and damages assessment
- seasonal forecast translated to sectoral impacts
- Parvathy Subha, ESCAP
Wrap-up and Reflections16:45 PM – 17:00 PM
DAY 5: 13th February 2026
Synthesis, Summary, and Next Steps for Training-of-Trainers and National Demonstration Plans
08:30 AM – 17:00 PM (Kathmandu, Nepal Time, UTC+5:45)
SessionTimeDetails (To Be Finalized)Lead/Speaker(s)
Signing of Attendance08:30 AM – 09:00 AM
Daily Recap09:00 AM – 09:15 AMParticipant
National Pilot Demonstration Clinic – Round 3 (3 countries)09:15 AM - 10:00 AM1. Maldives
2. India
3. Afghanistan (tbc)
Early Warning For All (EW4All) Roadmap Nepal10:00 AM - 10:15 AM- Dr. Popular Gentle and Mr. Haile Girmai (WFP)
Morning Break10:15 AM – 10:30 AM
Session 14: Training-of-Trainers10:30 AM - 12:30 PM- Bringing together various ToT components from through the week
- Guidelines and structuring for National Cascading of IBF
- Key principles of effective adult learning and facilitation
- Practical tips for facilitating group exercises and discussions
- “Clinic” on helping to address common challenges experienced by participants in their efforts in these areas previously
- Helen Caughey, UKMO
Lunch Break12:30 PM – 13:30 PM
Monitoring, Evaluation, and Learning (MEL) in IBF13:30 AM – 13:50 PM- ⁠Purpose and focus of MEL for IBF operationalization
- MEL tools and their application for national demonstrations
- Thanut Rittichai, RIMES and Anat Prag, UKMO
Session 15: Cross-Country Synthesis of National Pilot Demos13:50 AM – 15:00 PM- Dr. Anshul Agarwal, RIMES
Session 16: Roadmap to Implementation & Post-Workshop Support15:00 PM – 15:30 PM- RIMES and UKMO
Workshop Closing and Way Forward15:30 PM- RIMES and DHM
Afternoon Snack and Networking15:30 PM onwards